Sarah Palin as a Political Genius

It's often said that Sarah Palin is a political genius. Chris Matthews recently compared her to Bill Clinton. She has one of the most devoted and loyal fan bases of any politician in recent memory.

But for all her alleged political genius, she is perhaps most famous for her various gaffes and mistakes, especially as a VP candidate. While she excites the media, demands attenti

on, and is a pop culture phenomenon, it's unclear whether she is a popular, viable national politician. The media seems to think that the ability to draw attention to yourself is political genius in its own right. But if much of that attention is damaging or polarizing, its genius is suspect. For all of her strengths, they are often outweighed by her negatives. For every fan of hers, there appears to be more haters.

To wit:

There's a pretty clear trend. Is someone that has 51% unfavorable ratings a "political genius"? Especially when they are largely in the advantageous position of not having to actually govern during these harrowing times?

Predicting the 2012 Presidential Election

Who is going to win the 2012 Presidential Election? To answer that, only two questions really need to be answered:

1. What will the state of the economy be in 2012?

2. Who will the GOP nominate as their candidate?

Unfortunately, those are two difficult questions to answer. I’ll look at question #1 in this post and deal with question #2 later.

Unlike many issues in political science, there is near-universal consensus that the economy is one of the largest determinants of electoral outcomes. A good economy usually leads to the incumbent or incumbent’s party doing well and a bad economy will lead to the opposite results. Of course, what is a “good” or “bad” economy? The unemployment rate is currently just south of 10%. If it’s near 7%, is that good? Against normal standards of unemployment, no, it is not. In fact, it is near where the Obama administration initially predicted unemployment would peak during this recession. But of course, our expectations of what is good and bad is measured relative to current and recent conditions. And compared to the last 2 years, a 7% unemployment rate would be a welcome sign, especially since it would mean we’re adding jobs at a modest clip.

In his latest paper, Ray Fair attempts to more specifically define the quality of the economy and its implications. Based on GDP growth, inflation, and the number of positive economic quarters, he’s able to predict with a fair degree of accuracy the 2012 election. In his “good economy” scenario, he predicts an Obama blowout of over 55% of the popular vote. A more modest recovery predicts an Obama loss at 49.12% of the vote (close enough where more marginal factors may make a difference). A “double dip” recession leads to a GOP blowout.

The Federal Reserve in fact does predict the “good economy” scenario, but economic forecasts are always tricky and there is a large amount of uncertainly built into their predictions.

What is important, however, is that if this economic prediction occurs the question over the Republican candidate becomes largely irrelevant. It’s difficult for incumbents to lose the Presidency in general and essentially impossible when the economy is growing. Conversely, if the economy remains terrible, it also doesn’t matter who the Republicans nominate, as they will steamroll their way into the White House regardless.

In summary: a good economy, as predicted by the Fed, leads to an easy Obama victory (not considering potential scandals or security crises) regardless of who the GOP nominates. Unfortunately, there is a large degree of uncertainty over the state of the economy in 2012. If there is a modest economic recovery, as is possible, then suddenly the issue of whom the GOP picks as their candidate becomes paramount to Obama’s chances.

Next: Who will the Republicans nominate in 2012?